Friday, July 31, 2009
A Departure, a comment on our financial situation.
Sorry for this but i do think in a way it is important to our industry, especially as profits, pay and customer numbers fall.
I haven't read anything asking this question, but it probably exisits. Ddid our current financial situation (globally) really begin with Enron? I just finished watching "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room" and i began to wonder if there are connections between our current financial problems and what Enron did. Enron created new ways of trading. Some of the banks we have come to associate with our current financial problems where in cohorts with enron to create false profits. My basic question is did the creative proceses Enron used just morph into a different market? Do you remember rolling black outs? Those where created by Enron and their traders. Banks like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Citibank had helped to bankroll Enrons problemed bottom line and are now in financial hardship (finally). Did the financial world learn something from the down fall of Enron and what is it they learned? It seems to me that debt trading and debt derivitives are an extension of mark to market accounting. That is claiming future profits on current investments, which is especially troublsome because future values can very rarly be accuretly determined. Now hold on, because this gets complicated. So i want to sell you debt, but not just one persons debt, but let us say i take 1000 home loans, then i break them them up into percentages of valuation. not based on the probability of defualt or risk but on the future valuation of the payback (assuming everyone pays back debt in full no matter their current financial situation) and the future profits of full payback. This is in the closest way i can explain a derivitive, or to derive current value based off of future returns. Seems questionable to me to claim a value based off of an unkown. all value for me should be based off of current valuations, but currently (espiecaly now)that is not a world we live in. Those toxic assets, they aren't gone but just written off the books and those vast profits aren't really there either. It seems another magic show is being put on to prop up the world financial sector that has been broken for a very long time. Enron created new, irresposible and fraduanlent ways of accounting for current costs through future gains that aren't in any way garanteed. Just looking at the financial figures of Enron executives compared to losses of the employees and "regular investors" is very analogious to our current situation with large payouts to executives while the corporation looses vast sums of money. It is really hard to calcutate current costs especially in our current market as prices of fuel, labor, etc. fluctuate. Just imagine how much harder, or the magic that is required to calculate future profits.It amounts to a guessing game. Just look back to a year ago and the costs of living a year ago. How much did you spend on fuel, food, education, clothing, power, water, etc...well how much of your income went to bills? Now did that go down in a year? My guess is yes. Fuel itself is at least $1.00 less a gallon, price of food has gone up, earnings have probably gone down but because of lack of bonuses and pay raises if not pay reduction or unemployment. Now some would say the in the end it balances out and superficually i would agree, but on the finer points or on examination of details it appears that that we are suffering the cost of our hubris. Or of the hubris of the rich and powerful. If an analyst didn't see this downfall coming (i have been talking about it for atleast 5 years) then what kind of analyst are they? And the downfall isn't finished. The price of commercial realestate and the price of residential rentals must come down to reflect the current realestate valuations, layoffs will continue and the US will probably reach an unemployment level above 10% maybe even up to 12%-13%. If Enron and the past recessions, depressions and recoveries have taught us anything it is that regulation is very important. Now granted, I'm on the extream here. I can't think of any reason why anyone human needs to make more than $2 million ($2,000,000.00-just look at all those zeros) a year. What possibly could you need that takes up all that resource. It seems to me that executives have lost sight of one of the most important aspects of leadership, take care of those who take care of you. If you make 10 million a year there is no reason why anyone in your company should make below $50,000,00.00 (50 thousand) a year. i mean really are you that self important and selfish? Or is it that we inhabit a world of managers with few leaders? Many people would argue that such a cap would in return cap the pay of workers. But that would only happen if we let it. if the workers had more money to spend they would spend it. The only way top down economics works is if you expand the top and eliminate the bottom. The more people with money the more people to spend money and to save and to invest. This seems simple but arguments about merit, valuation of contribution and the idea of the american dream persist to make it a limited number at the top. It seems to me the a revaluation of the american dream is what is called for. We need to revaluate what is important to us as society, not as individuals. If we call to make resposible those at the forefront of our down fall then we are all resposible. If knowledge and its application is the true reward then we need to refocuse on education. President Obama was correct is asking the country to refocuse ourselves but we seem to lack the will to sacrifice that is required. We will have to pay more for less in the future. But if you want quality then quality is worth the price. Are you ready to pay for Quality?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)